The front door, lavishly decorated with expensive natural marble, opened silently. Seok-won stepped out of the luxury villa, accompanied by his assistant, Han Ji-sung.
He wore a perfectly tailored, custom-made suit that emphasized his frame, every line precise and impeccable, his stride exuding confidence.
Park Joon-sung, who had been waiting by a Mercedes-Benz luxury sedan parked at the entrance, bowed deeply as Seok-won appeared.
"Good morning, sir."
Seok-won smiled and responded gracefully.
"The weather is nice today as well."
Straightening his back, Joon-sung quickly opened the car door. Seok-won slid into the rear seat with a familiar ease.
The door closed, and almost immediately, the Mercedes glided smoothly forward.
Seok-won sank into the plush leather seat, casually watching the scenery pass by outside the window.
A vibration in his pocket prompted him to take out his phone.
"Hello?"
[It's me, boss.]
He furrowed his brow slightly at Landon's tense voice.
"Did something happen?"
[Yes. I'm not sure how it will play out yet, but an important development has been detected in Washington.]
"What is it?"
[Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Henik has left for Moscow today to meet Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Popov.]
Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Henik was one of the most influential figures in the U.S. government, having even been involved in negotiations for Korea and the IMF's bailout.
For someone of his caliber to head to Moscow meant that something very significant, economically, was underway.
"What's the purpose of the visit?"
[Recently, the yen has continued its relentless decline, showing signs that the Asian financial crisis might be reemerging.]
Korea had successfully secured a full-term extension on its short-term foreign debt, and with the citizens voluntarily contributing to a gold-collection campaign, stability was quickly returning.
However, Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, were once again facing surging exchange rates, highlighting the looming threat of a financial crisis.
[They're going to Moscow to discuss countermeasures in advance, fearing the ripple effects could hit Russia.]
Seok-won lightly nodded while holding his phone.
"It makes sense. The U.S. holds the largest amount of Russian bonds, and if Moscow shakes, the crisis could easily spread to Europe."
[It would be a disaster if Russia ended up needing U.S. assistance.]
Unlike Landon, who sounded worried, Seok-won replied with a calm, almost leisurely tone.
"Just because they're going to meet doesn't mean everything will go smoothly."
[Of course, but Russia isn't in a position to refuse help from the U.S., is it?]
"From the outside, Russia doesn't have the luxury to pick and choose, but the results are something you only find out after the fact."
Something in Seok-won's tone made Landon uneasy, and he asked cautiously.
[Are you suggesting that Russia might actually refuse U.S. help?]
Russia was teetering under massive debt from ongoing fiscal deficits; if help was offered, they would have to accept it gratefully.
'But the world doesn't always follow the rules of logic.'
If everything unfolded according to reason, wars and economic depressions wouldn't exist in human history.
"Even though they're in decline now, just ten years ago during the Cold War, Russia was a superpower standing shoulder to shoulder with the U.S."
[That's true.]
"On top of that, even though its status has plummeted, it's still a nuclear power with a stockpile rivaling the U.S."
[Are you saying Russia would refuse U.S. help out of pride?]
Landon's tone conveyed disbelief, but Seok-won responded calmly.
"The Russian government isn't foolish enough to deliberately do something like that."
[Then why…]
Seok-won wore a meaningful expression.
"But accidents always happen because of completely unexpected events."
[…]
Landon had no idea what he meant.
Seok-won adjusted his grip on the phone and spoke.
"One thing is certain: cooperation between the U.S. and Russia won't happen as easily as people think. How's the position building going?"
Seok-won shifted the topic, and Landon quickly gathered himself to answer.
Even hearing reassurances didn't completely ease his unease, but he buried it deep for the moment.
[We're moving as fast as we can, but because the amount is so large, it looks like completion won't come until next week at the earliest.]
"Can't be helped. Depending on the outcome of Henik's visit to Moscow, the situation could shift dramatically. Let's try to speed things up."
[Understood.]
Landon, as if he had just remembered something, spoke again.
[And I have one more piece of news to report.]
"Go ahead."
[The trial result for Woo Ho-geun, who was arrested by the DEA, has come out.]
Hearing the familiar name, Seok-won raised his eyebrows slightly.
"The verdict came out faster than expected."
[He was caught in the act, and we made sure the trial wouldn't be delayed on our end.]
"Of course, he was found guilty, right?"
[Absolutely. He was sentenced to twelve years and eleven months and was immediately taken into custody in the courtroom.]
Seok-won's expression showed satisfaction at the harsher-than-expected sentence.
"He didn't appeal?"
[He did, but the evidence is so solid that acquittal is out of the question, and getting a reduced sentence will be difficult.]
"That's good news."
A deep smile spread across Seok-won's face.
[As for the situation in Russia, we'll contact you immediately once the results come in.]
"Do that."
After ending the call and putting the phone back in his pocket, Seok-won's mind turned to the absurdly outrageous incident Russia was about to commit.
"Major events always begin with completely unexpected circumstances."
***
Long Island, New York, LTCM Headquarters.
In a sleek office with a large glass window, CEO Jacob Wisemann sat on a sofa. His solid build and sharp gaze gave him an imposing presence.
Across from him, Arthur Engoron, head of the arbitrage department, delivered a report. Wisemann spoke after listening.
"So, Deputy Secretary Henik went to Moscow to discuss the debt issue."
Engoron, meeting his gaze, nodded.
"Yes. In addition, the IMF negotiation team has also entered Russia."
"So Henik, known as a powerhouse in the Treasury, and the IMF team are moving together…"
Technically, they weren't going together; they just happened to arrive in Moscow at the same time. But it wasn't important enough for Engoron to correct him, so he let it pass.
"Henik going to Moscow means the U.S. is going to support Russia, doesn't it?"
"They wouldn't go for leisure, so probably."
Wisemann's indifferent reply prompted Engoron to lean forward eagerly.
"With Russia's bond spreads blown wide by the worsening economy, if U.S. and IMF support becomes tangible, the spreads will immediately narrow back into a normal range. This is an opportunity!"
Wisemann, wearing a gleaming gold Rolex, glanced with narrow eyes at the visibly excited Engoron.
"You're suggesting we buy Russian bonds?"
"Immediately, and as much as possible. By now, other parties likely have the same information—hesitate, and we'll miss the opportunity!"
Leaning back against the sofa, Wisemann said,
"As far as I know, we already have a substantial position in Russian government bonds."
Engoron, frustrated by the lack of immediate enthusiasm, pressed on.
"You said to put more money in to maximize profit, didn't you?"
"That's true."
"Given the large spread difference, we could earn at least ten percent!"
For a moment, Wisemann's eyes lit up.
A ten percent return on government bonds was not easy to achieve, so his interest was naturally piqued.
But instead of making a hasty decision, Wisemann maintained a cautious, deliberate stance.
"Is there any chance the prediction could be wrong?"
"Russia is facing difficulties now due to the fallout from the Soviet collapse, but it remains a nuclear-armed superpower. On top of that, it's an oil-producing nation with as much oil and natural gas as the Middle East. With help from the U.S. and IMF, it can definitely weather this crisis," Engoron said confidently.
Wisemann, too, never considered that Russia—a nuclear power that once stood toe-to-toe with the U.S.—would collapse.
Although S&P had sharply downgraded Russia's credit rating, he viewed it differently from Asian countries like Korea, which were experiencing economic crises.
'You can't compare Russia with those countries.'
There was also a more practical problem: LTCM's declining returns over time.
In recent years, LTCM had posted astonishing returns, attracting countless competitors trying to replicate its arbitrage strategies, which naturally shrank the pie they could take.
A few failed bets had already caused losses, putting LTCM at risk of recording a deficit for the first time this year.
'Even if we barely avoid a loss, our record of double-digit annual returns will be broken.'
Their previous formula for success—drawing in more leverage after Wall Street's applause for phenomenal returns—was in danger of collapsing.
Wisemann, who understood Wall Street better than anyone, could easily foresee that once returns dropped, LTCM would become just one fund among many.
At this moment, to stay "on the running horse" without falling, they had to at least maintain current returns.
Moreover, having already returned investors' money confidently, they couldn't afford to falter or produce results below their previous standards.
'I absolutely cannot collapse now.'
Muttering this internally, Wisemann nodded toward Engoron across from him.
"Good. Double—or no, quadruple—the Russian bond position."
"Quadruple, sir?"
Engoron's eyes widened in surprise, and he asked again, startled.
Though he had suggested adding more funds earlier, he hadn't expected Wisemann to order the position quadrupled.
"You just said that to make big profits, we need to put in as much money as possible."
"That's true, but…"
Engoron hesitated slightly.
"Like you said, there's no real risk of a nuclear-armed, oil-rich Russia collapsing. If we're going to bet, we might as well go all in."
Relieved, Engoron nodded in agreement.
"You're right."
"I'll call Goldman, AIG, and Citibank to pull in as much capital as possible. You gather as many bonds as you can."
"Yes, understood!"
Once the decision was made, there was no turning back.
After a brief discussion, Engoron left the office with eager steps, and Wisemann muttered with a sly glint in his eyes.
"I was already wondering how to make up for lost returns, and the Russian bears are helping me out."