As far as Aegor knew, the North had neither weapons nor military preparations against dragons. With shipping between the North and South blockaded by the Targaryen fleet out of Dragonstone, and Stannis in King's Landing unable to provide equipment or technical support, even with just Rhaegal, Daenerys could sweep through the North unchecked.
Moreover, the army of The Gift, having just defeated and annihilated the invading White Walkers, possessed formidable combat strength. They relied on a rare, highly efficient command system, decent combat skills and training for their era, and high morale following a great victory. As long as they coordinated even slightly with Rhaegal, conducting infantry-dragon coordination rather than infantry-tank tactics, the alliance between The Gift and the Dragon Queen would be militarily unbeatable.
But was that truly the case?
Aegor began to doubt the conclusion he had drawn after a simple assessment. Frowning, he carefully reviewed the thought process and quickly found the loophole.
War is not only waged on battlefields. Conflict can be either a hot war or a cold war. In terms of direct fighting, perhaps Aegor really had nothing to fear, but he had to acknowledge this: The Gift under his control, though theoretically equivalent to one of the Seven Kingdoms, was in fact a complex and unstable political entity.
Tywin Lannister once said, "Some victories are won with swords and spears, others with paper, ink, and ravens."
If one were the North's decision-maker, unable to face dragons with effective countermeasures yet truly wishing to oppose the Night's Watch abandoning neutrality and backing the Dragon Queen's claim to the Iron Throne, then there was a better choice than launching a direct military campaign: employing soft power to resolve the conflict through bloodless, or at least less bloody, means.
...
The White Walkers had been repelled. The three forces that made up The Gift—the allied mountain clans, the surrendered New Gift people, and the original Night's Watch—had lost their greatest unifying factor. Meanwhile, Aegor, the supreme leader, was neither a natural-born lord nor a traditional ruler. He had no noble bloodline or heirs, no master or disciples. His seemingly firm control over The Gift was likely more fragile than any Northern lord's hold over his own lands. The legitimacy of his rule and the legality of his actions were his greatest weaknesses. The North didn't need to defeat all of The Gift—toppling him alone would be enough.
The Stark family would only need to: reach out to the mountain clans and state their stance, simultaneously declare that the Free Folk were free to stay or leave as they pleased, and then coordinate with dissenters within the Night's Watch to carry out an internal and external joint effort.
True, the North lacked experienced political players, but even if they didn't think of this, Aegor couldn't afford to be unprepared.
How should he guard against this?
Don't panic. The simplest and most direct method: meet soldiers with generals, and block water with earth.
Aegor took a deep breath and began analyzing countermeasures one by one.
---
Among the three forces in The Gift, the mountain clans were the easiest to deal with. Though nominally part of the North and known for their respect and loyalty to Eddard Stark, that was under the North's previous lenient policy of loose governance—they paid little tax or grain, and were rarely conscripted. With no real conflict of interest, peaceful coexistence came naturally.
However, in this long winter, it was the Night's Watch—more precisely, the Logistics Department—that gave them clothes to wear, food to eat, land to live on, and shelter. They had also fought side by side with them against the Wildlings and the White Walkers. As long as Aegor met with the clan chiefs first and offered tangible benefits like permanent land in The Gift, while it might be difficult to turn them against the North, getting them to avoid becoming a tool of the Stark family should not be too challenging.
Next were the New Gift people, the most recent arrivals but the most numerous. These former Free Folk had gathered under Mance Rayder to escape the threat of the White Walkers. After being firmly blocked at the Wall by the Night's Watch, they had sacrificed much, even cutting off their own limbs and reducing their numbers, to gain entry into the southern lands. Under the Night's Watch's strict carrot-and-stick rule, they had caused incidents, yes, but their massive contributions to The Gift's development and wartime efforts could not be denied. Now that the enemy occupying their homeland had been eliminated, among the Free Folk who had become residents of The Gift, some surely wanted to remain well-fed, warm, and safe under the Seven Kingdoms' protection, while others longed to return beyond the Wall, seeking "freedom" and richer per capita resources now that the population had decreased.
This division was the easiest weapon for outside forces to exploit against him.
By claiming that "Beyond the Wall remains unsafe," Aegor could delay this issue, but he could not avoid it forever. Perhaps it was time to activate the pro-Seven Kingdoms people he had been cultivating since the beginning, make use of the personal cult he had already established, and manipulate public opinion to seize the initiative.
Schemes were his specialty. Once the direction was set, a rough strategy quickly formed in his mind. Then came...
The Night's Watch. Even after Aegor loosened the rules, lowered the entry threshold, and greatly expanded the order, it remained the smallest force within The Gift. Yet it was this smallest group that made him most wary. By improving treatment and leading them successfully in defense against the White Walkers, he had indeed suppressed dissent and gained their respect and obedience. But he knew clearly: this state existed only as long as he fulfilled the duties of Lord Commander and led them against a common enemy. Now that the threat had passed and he, the Lord Commander, had begun doing "unorthodox" things, it was impossible to predict how much loyalty would remain.
Black cloaks, sworn brothers—these titles, oaths, and shared victories bound them. Aegor found it difficult to use ordinary, crude methods on them. Their knowledge, experience, and intelligence far exceeded those of the mountain clans and Free Folk, which made many officers highly resistant to manipulation. What was worse: once he was removed, the positions of Lord Commander and other high-ranking posts would be up for grabs. That alone was reason enough for countless old-guard Night's Watch members to respond to the North and conspire against him.
His own people were the most motivated to turn against him.
Fortunately, relocating the Night's Watch headquarters from the Wall to Crown Town had created an effective buffer and separation from the old-guard members. As long as he stayed alert and treated every Black Brother who wasn't firmly on his side as a potential threat, Aegor might still face trouble, but he wouldn't have to worry about suddenly being surrounded and stabbed by dozens of blades.
While he was methodically and fully focused on planning how to counter all possible forms of overt and covert attacks, a familiar female voice sounded in his ear.
"Lord Commander, I put quite a bit of effort into persuading the people I brought not to become your enemies. But have you thought about... how to arrange that little prophet of yours?"
...
It was Melisandre. She, Moqorro, Aegor, and others were accompanying the Queen to supervise construction of the temporary dragon lair. At the moment, Daenerys was fully focused on the task, not bothering with her followers. With the great task completed and fewer concerns for the Red Priests, she seemed unusually relaxed and at ease.
The priestess's question seemed casual, something to pass the time. But with just a few words, she brought two issues Aegor had forgotten about back to the forefront of his mind. The "people she brought" naturally referred to the nobles who had originally served Stannis, but had followed Melisandre to the Wall and pledged themselves to the Night's Watch due to their deep faith in the Lord of Light. These men, more capable than most, had contributed significantly to The Gift's development and the war. Aegor had left them alone once they swore allegiance to Daenerys. It had to be said—Melisandre, as a fire friend, had been genuinely kind.
As for the "little prophet," she was referring to Bran Stark, who had returned to the Seven Kingdoms after his journey beyond the Wall. Though he had joined the Night's Watch and sworn his oath in Aegor's presence, as a Stark and a strange boy who had suddenly gained supernatural abilities, both Aegor and the two senior Red Priests had always viewed him with caution.
Coincidentally, since the Battle of Long Lake, Bran had fallen into a long coma. He slept through most of each day and, when occasionally awake, only claimed that he had expended too much energy during the confrontation with the Night King and needed rest. While this explanation sounded plausible, in truth, Aegor suspected it was a strategy to reduce his presence—and it had worked, as he himself had nearly forgotten about him.
Someone so powerful, whose allegiance was unclear, and who could not be killed for various reasons—what would he do now that the White Walkers had been dealt with? The thought alone made Aegor uneasy.
"My Lords, can you tell whether he's truly comatose from overexertion? Do you have any suggestions?"
"He did indeed expend a great deal of energy. But whether it was enough to put him in such a long sleep... I doubt it," Moqorro replied calmly. "Of course, there is no proof. Since the boy brought Lightbringer back from beyond the Wall, I hesitate to speak ill of him. My Lord, the final decision may rest with you."
Aegor slowly nodded in acknowledgment and sighed. "Mm. I know. I already have an idea of how to deal with him."
An idea? That was a lie. There was a mountain of problems to solve. How could he possibly have time to think about this now?
But if he ignored such a massive variable entirely, the consequences when something went wrong would be unimaginable.
What should he do? He would have to think about it properly when he lay down to rest that night.
Just as he made that decision, a soldier came running, gasping for breath as he reported.
"Lord Commander, a saltpeter boiling room built by the former residents was found in the backyard of the main castle at Last Hearth. There's still a large amount of refined saltpeter inside. How should we deal with it?"
(To be continued.)