Chapter 239: What on Earth Is Franz Up To?
"Your Excellency, the French have humiliated Prussia this time. The moment has come for France to realize what our Prussian army has achieved through its reforms," Moltke said sternly as he stared at Bismarck. Although his tone was slow, each word hit its mark.
His sharp eyes reflected a powerful will to win. No one knew the recent development of the Prussian army better than Moltke himself, and he was feeling a bit like a father whose son has finally grown up and is ready to prove himself.
"General Moltke, there's no need to rush. War will come sooner or later—His Majesty and I both accept that. Yet victory in war doesn't rest solely on the battlefield. Indeed, we've progressed rapidly, but we must remain clear-headed. France is a top-tier power; its strength can't be underestimated. I still want our Foreign Ministry to do some extra work, to make sure that other nations stay out of this conflict and give us the best odds of winning it," Bismarck said in a composed manner.
Some time ago, through various maneuvers, Bismarck had secretly signed mutual defense treaties with the southern German states, so what appeared to be a Franco-Prussian conflict could transform into a German-French war. Germany was essentially emerging. All that was left was for France to deliver the "certificate of recognition," so to speak. Indeed, one could say that France was quite capable: it would become the "godfather" of the unifications of America, Italy, and Germany, and all three later emerged as great powers.
"England and Russia aren't hard to handle. Right now, the main uncertainty in our war with France is Austria-Hungary's stance. But in the end, it mostly depends on Emperor Franz's personal inclinations..."
Russia planned to break free of the restrictions imposed by the 1856 Treaty of Paris. In the upcoming Franco-Prussian War, Russia would adopt "friendly neutrality," and station one hundred thousand troops at the Russo-Austrian border. Russia also promised Prussia that if Austria joined the conflict against Prussia, Russia would intervene and help Prussia.
Then, after Prussia's grand victory in the Franco-Prussian War, leading to German unification and the formation of the German Empire, Russia would be compensated. As a result of Russia remaining neutral, Bismarck supported Russia at the 1871 London Conference in freeing itself from the Black Sea restrictions laid out by the Treaty of Paris, reaffirming the principle of closing the straits and prohibiting foreign warships from passing through, thus safeguarding Russia's interests.
As for Britain, there's a saying that "those who owe money are the bosses." Prussia had borrowed a considerable sum from Britain in its previous wars. If Prussia lost...
Of course, the main point is that France is just too strong. Under Napoleon III, France is living its golden years and is nearly as prosperous as Britain itself. France possesses the world's second-largest colonial empire, and an extremely powerful army and navy. It's threatening Britain's position as global hegemon.
Hence, Russia and Britain both support Prussia. France's only potential ally is Austria-Hungary.
Yet Napoleon III's foreign policy has always been called "incompetent." Otherwise, he would never have allowed Italy to unify. It might be one thing to let Italy unite, but then France left troops to protect the Papal States just as Italy was about to finalize its unification—ruining any rapport between France and Italy.
Right now, Napoleon III still hasn't recognized the severity of the problem. If only he could win Austria-Hungary over, the outcome might still be up in the air.
Tap, tap, tap…
While Bismarck was about to continue, someone knocked on the door.
"Come in!" Bismarck wasn't fond of being interrupted, but he knew that if someone knocked during a meeting like this—where the Imperial Chancellor and the Chief of General Staff were talking—it must be urgent.
"Chancellor, General Moltke! This is important information from Intelligence."
Bismarck took the document and read it.
A moment later, "Interesting, excellent! Here, take a look," Bismarck said as he handed the file to Moltke.
The document read:
"Telegram, July 1: The Austro-Hungarian army shows signs of mobilization. Elite troops have been transferred out of the Slovak area to an unknown location. The fresh replacement units appear to come from southern Austria. ——Slovak Intelligence Office."
"What is Franz planning?" Moltke asked, puzzled.
Given that Russia has just stationed one hundred thousand troops at the border, one would expect Austria to strengthen its positions in Slovakia—a military stronghold close to both Prussia and Russia—and thus handle potential threats from either side. Instead, they are quietly pulling out their best troops. Could Franz truly be gambling that neither we nor Russia will attack?
"Could it be Italy? Italy's an ally to us, so if Austria dared act against Italy, the French wouldn't stand for it." Bismarck mulled it over.
Next, the Balkans? Possibly, but the Ottoman Empire, though very weak, is still somewhat formidable. If Austria wanted to fight them, second-rate units would suffice. Meanwhile, it would also risk Russian intervention if it tried to expand in the Balkans, so presumably Austria would keep more troops near the Russian front as a precaution. So what is Franz really up to? Could it simply be normal troop rotation?
"Well, in any case, at least it implies that right now Austria isn't focusing on Germany. Let our forces put their energy toward France," Moltke commented.
Indeed, Austria's lack of interest in Germany might suggest it's totally passive. Because if it tried anything in Germany, Hungary would sabotage it from behind, but confronting a weaker power—like Italy—would not meet Hungarian resistance. If they attacked Italy, the Hungarians might even help, since they want part of the loot.
"All right, at least we know that for now Austria-Hungary won't meddle with Prussia. Let's hope they made a foolish choice, or maybe Franz got swayed by some incompetent adviser." Bismarck said lightly.
Yet as he spoke those words, he was already reviewing in his mind all the notable developments in Austria-Hungary. Recently, indeed, not much had transpired… Apart from that event in which Austria-Hungary was the first to acknowledge the new Kingdom of East Africa—led by the Hohenzollern family overseas. But East Africa isn't worth paying attention to. The ruling Blackenring (Hohenzollern) family venturing off to Africa was more of a curiosity than a real strategic move. Bismarck once remarked that Prince Konstantin and his son Ernst both shared adventurous spirits.
Why settle for a cozy Prussian princedom and run off to that "cursed" continent? Possibly it's just about flaunting wealth. Their African territory wouldn't interest anyone else anyway. At best, Konstantin would end up as some "African chief." And because of his standing in Germany, folks might humor him, but it's no big deal.
"All right, at least we can confirm Austria-Hungary isn't messing around in Germany. Our army can keep its focus on France," Moltke concluded.
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