Chapter 158: Motives and Techniques (Part 2)
"Because as the 'sister of Prince Hazan,' if you were to marry me, your status by my side would depend on the stability of our alliance. And the greatest threat to that stability," Ian finished, "is Illyrio."
"Correct," Celia nodded. "After Prince Hazan told me about Illyrio's relationship with the commander of the Purple Ship Fleet, I combined that with what I knew from the original stories. I quickly guessed the scope of Illyrio's ambition, and I understood that he would never truly surrender to Prince Hazan."
"At the same time," she continued, "I wasn't sure whose side you would take in a future conflict between them. To be safe, I needed to make Prince Hazan your only choice."
"But what I don't understand," Celia said, her brow furrowing slightly, "is how you could have investigated our initial actions in such detail."
"As I said before, players are not gods. We cannot create miracles. No matter how well you hide your tracks now, I only had to start from the beginning—from the time when players are most vulnerable, with the fewest resources. In that early stage, you must have taken enormous risks to develop quickly. An investigation starting from that point will always reveal flaws."
"How did you find out about the traitor?" Celia asked.
"I didn't," Ian said, shaking his head. "That was part of the deduction."
"You once lied to the other priests in the temple, telling them you met a man who called himself Gini Taime. That just so happened to be when Ander Poole sent men to the Red Temple to investigate the death of a resident."
"You wanted to feed Ander Poole false information—to make him think Gini Taime was still alive and to pin the resident's death on him. It was a ploy to attract Ander's attention and lead him astray."
"But there was a problem. Gini Taime only used that name on the wanted poster at the Qoma Inn. At all other times, he used other aliases. So why would Ander Poole possibly take an interest in the name 'Gini Taime'?"
"Therefore, I speculated that your fourth ally never sought an alliance with you as agreed. Instead, he betrayed you and joined Ander Poole's team. The resident who died in the Red Temple that day was that traitor. And you were the one who killed him."
Ian leaned back, a faint smile on his lips. "There were no further details to find, but judging from your reaction just now, I guessed everything correctly, didn't I?"
"Yes. Ander Poole almost found me out," Celia admitted with a nod. "I had to divert his attention. It was a critical moment; I was trying to forge the connection between you and Prince Hazan. If I had let Hazan's men get rid of Ander, you would have suspected that the prince had a player on his side. That wasn't a risk worth taking for my grand design."
"Then I am truly flattered," Ian said, the corner of his mouth twitching.
"Well," Celia said, regaining her composure, "now that your doubts are resolved, allow me to tell you Prince Hazan's plan. I bet you will never guess it this time."
"No, I think I've already deduced most of Hazan's plan," Ian interrupted with a confident smile.
"How is that possible?" Celia said, her confusion plain. "Are you joking?" She had thought this was her moment to shine, confident as she was in the subtlety of her scheme. But this man was telling her he had already unraveled it?
"Prince Hazan's ally is the Tetrus family," Ian stated directly. "No, to be precise, it is Governor Guerrero Tetrus himself."
"You—" Celia jumped to her feet. "Your greenseer skills aren't just advanced, they're legendary, aren't they? Or have you simply become the Three-Eyed Crow?"
"For a true reasoner," Ian said, once again quoting the old stories of Sherlock Holmes, "if someone points out one aspect of a fact, he can deduce not only all other aspects of that fact, but also all the consequences that will arise from it. Once I determined the identity and purpose of the player behind Hazan, the entire tapestry of the plot laid itself bare before me."
"The next puzzle I had to solve," Ian continued, "was the method you used to persuade Hazan, and the method Hazan plans to use against Illyrio. To kill Illyrio, Hazan must solve two problems: how to do it, and how to handle the aftermath."
"A successful assassination would be the most perfect solution. As long as there was no evidence linking the killer to him, he would have no aftermath to deal with."
"But I have been with Magister Illyrio for almost two months. I know the level of his personal protection intimately. Short of sending the Faceless Men, I cannot think of anyone who could successfully assassinate him."
"And the Faceless Men never guarantee a timeframe. Just as Jaqen H'ghar told Arya when she proposed he kill Tywin Lannister or Cersei, the task might take a year or more. The strength of the Faceless Men lies in disguise, not absolute force. With enough patience and time, they can indeed kill anyone. But to kill Illyrio in such a short window? I don't think it's possible."
"Illyrio began his career as an assassin. When he and Varys first rose to power, every killer in Pentos wanted their heads, but none succeeded. Illyrio has extremely rich experience in dealing with assassins. It is his professional field."
"Therefore, I lean toward a plan of overt force."
"Ambush and sneak attack were the second methods I considered, but they are too difficult to implement. Pentos is crawling with Illyrio's spies. Any significant troop movement by Hazan would be reported, arousing Illyrio's vigilance."
"Moreover, even if a sneak attack succeeded, he couldn't handle the aftermath. Hazan is already at odds with the Volantis Party. If he were to attack Illyrio, he would face the combined might of Illyrio's allies, the Volantis Party, and old Governor Lotalus, who defends the established order of Pentos."
"As I was ruling out ambush, I also summarized the two conditions Hazan must meet to kill Illyrio."
"One, he must ensure his troop movements will not be discovered by Illyrio. This is impossible. So, at the very least, he needs to ensure Illyrio will not be suspicious of those movements."
"Two, for a perfect aftermath, he must have allies strong enough to help him win the ensuing civil war. Only two men in Pentos meet that condition: his sworn enemy, Governor Guerrero Tetrus of the Volantis Party, and the defender of Pentoshi tradition, Patsi Rotalus, commander-in-chief of the City Guard."
"Theoretically, neither of them should be willing to help him," Celia said, speaking for the first time in a while.
"And that is exactly the effect he wants," Ian said with a smile and a shake of his head. "Because in this way, he achieves his first goal: he prevents Illyrio from doubting his troop mobilization."
"After thinking of this, my original question—why there was no mention of an impending civil war in Pentos in the original stories—came to my mind again."
"And at the same time, another thought came with it: the martial arts competition tomorrow, which was also never described in the original stories, but is now nearly upon us."
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