Chapter 82: She'll Definitely Be There Next Time
"Dr. Wolfe, do you think it's Sheriff Thomas McAllister from Napa County?"
JJ asked, puzzled. "He's just a small-town sheriff."
"Of the three, he has the strongest genetic resemblance to the girl,"
Chuck said.
"That's true,"
Reid nodded, examining the photos in the three files.
"And based on their documented activities, Sheriff Thomas McAllister also has the highest overlap with Red John's timeline,"
Chuck said. "He's directly connected to the investigation three times."
"That makes sense. Many serial killers have a compulsion to watch the aftermath,"
Reid nodded. "They even try to insert themselves into investigations. Partly to witness and relive their own 'work,' and partly to enjoy the thrill and sense of superiority that comes from fooling the investigators. That's why we often film bystanders at crime scenes for later analysis."
"..."
JJ couldn't help but glance at Reid.
She now understood why Morgan thought Reid idolized Chuck too much.
It was becoming obvious.
"That's just public information,"
Director Kate questioned. "Based on current evidence, Red John is a cunning and careful killer, and a member of law enforcement. He's certainly familiar with standard investigative tactics and would be cautious about them. He wouldn't necessarily make the same mistakes as typical serial killers."
"Dr. Wolfe, you have another reason, don't you?"
Gideon smiled.
"Yes."
Chuck nodded. "The most important factor is that the answer you eliminate first is usually the correct one."
"...What kind of reasoning is that?"
Everyone was speechless.
JJ couldn't help but look at Reid. She was curious to see if Reid would still blindly agree with Chuck at this point.
Reid was also stunned for a moment, but soon his eyes lit up: "That actually makes sense. Red John is an extremely cautious and methodical killer. There have been no viable leads for years. While his caution and possible connections helped eliminate evidence,
he probably didn't have those advantages initially. In those first cases, he managed to stay hidden so well partly because others didn't suspect him at all. Whether his identity or appearance, he must have been convincing enough to make people trust him and never consider him a threat.
This follows the pattern in many classic detective cases where the least likely suspect is the perpetrator. Now we have three suspects. The first one we eliminate is Sheriff Thomas McAllister. This perfectly fits the pattern of eliminating the correct answer first..."
"Spencer!"
JJ couldn't help but interrupt.
"What?"
Reid immediately stopped and looked at the only BAU member who had called his name.
"This isn't some classic detective novel or movie,"
JJ couldn't help but laugh. "Those cases are deliberately convoluted and bizarre to mislead readers and viewers, making them think the killer is impossible to identify, which highlights the detective's brilliance. This is a real case, without an audience."
"Exactly,"
Unit Chief Hotchner nodded. "The first rule in investigation is: when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras. Most real cases aren't that complicated."
"When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras" is a well-known principle meaning don't overcomplicate simple problems.
Often, the most straightforward answer is correct. Just like with murdered wives in America—90% of the time, it's the husband.
Every American knows this statistic.
So whenever a wife is murdered, the husband becomes everyone's primary suspect.
"This isn't basic investigation,"
Chuck said calmly, facing their stares. "If any rookie detective could spot this and solve the case, then all the experienced investigators employed by the government would be unemployed, because they lack the fundamentals."
The reality obviously isn't like that.
Or not entirely like that.
Red John has been active for years, and even from his earliest crimes, no one found useful evidence, which can only mean that Red John isn't a horse, but a zebra.
"Chuck's right,"
Reid couldn't help but nod: "Reality isn't a classic detective novel or movie, and we don't have readers and viewers here, so there's no need to deliberately complicate cases, but who can be certain? The characters in those classic detective stories don't know they're in fictional worlds, so without the ability to break the fourth wall, no one can be 100% sure we're not living in some kind of narrative!"
"What?"
JJ looked confused.
"Like Deadpool, the Marvel character,"
Reid tried to explain: "He's a comic book character who knows he's fictional. He often breaks the fourth wall and talks to readers... and Superman-Prime in DC Comics can do this too. When comic writers portrayed him as a villain, he literally broke out of the comic world, went to the editorial offices, and confronted the writers to change his story back..."
"Okay, Reid."
Gideon interrupted Reid, who was only making JJ more confused, and said seriously: "I think we need to go to California."
"Agreed."
Unit Chief Hotchner nodded: "If we want to bring Red John to justice, we can only find evidence by examining past cases."
"Dr. Wolfe, will you join us?"
Gideon invited: "We need your expertise."
"Sure."
Chuck had no objection.
Even if Gideon hadn't invited him, he would have gone.
This situation involved such a notorious serial killer and a massive criminal organization, so it made sense to be proactive and eliminate the threat as completely as possible.
Although Chuck didn't currently have someone he cared about, others might assume he did. Once innocent people got hurt, it wouldn't severely impact Chuck's emotional state, but it certainly wouldn't be pleasant.
"Should we call Morgan and Elle back?"
Unit Chief Hotchner asked.
"No, their investigation is equally important,"
Gideon shook his head: "Let Morgan and Elle continue here, and we'll split into two teams. Let's go pack and leave this afternoon."
"I'll assist Morgan and Elle,"
Director Kate said.
Everyone stood up to prepare. They quickly packed and arrived at an airport tarmac where a small Gulfstream jet was parked.
This was the BAU's dedicated aircraft.
Chuck followed them aboard. The interior was well-appointed. The FBI was clearly well-funded.
"Spencer, tonight's outing will have to be postponed. I'll arrange something else later,"
Chuck chose a seat and sat down, then said to Reid.
"Outing?"
JJ looked over curiously.
"I was going to show Spencer how to be receptive when a woman shows interest and then practice accordingly,"
Chuck said straightforwardly: "There was supposed to be a woman who would be perfect for Spencer to take that first step, but now it'll have to wait."
Reid suddenly looked at JJ with an embarrassed, flustered expression: "Chuck did mention... I don't know anything about this woman."
(End of Chapter)
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