"Please, have a seat, my armored hero, General Guderian, and my Chief of the General Staff, General Zeitzler. It is a pleasure to dine with you both," Hitler said, trying his best to adapt to the Führer's speaking style.
"Chief of the General Staff?" Guderian asked, full of surprise, turning to Zeitzler. "You're replacing Halder?"
Zeitzler replied apologetically, "To be honest, I only just received verbal notification from General Schmundt. I don't know the specific details."
Guderian was puzzled. From the Führer's words just now, he was sure he would be reinstated, which gave him considerable hope. Although he didn't dare to dream of the position of Chief of the General Staff, a field army commander was certainly within reach. Now, it seemed the situation was far more complex than he had imagined. If a junior like Zeitzler could become Chief of the General Staff, why couldn't he, Guderian? He glanced at Zeitzler with a complex expression, then, in a flash, became worried about gains and losses.
Zeitzler was no less puzzled than Guderian. If it weren't for a clear directive telegram from the High Command, he wouldn't have flown from France to dine with the Führer. It was well known that the Führer lived a simple, austere life, and his diet and daily routines were extremely basic, which high-ranking officers accustomed to luxury found hard to adapt to. What was worse, the Führer often delivered lengthy speeches during meals, endlessly peddling old clichés, making one's ears almost callus, yet they still had to pretend to listen attentively. Upon hearing that the Führer summoned him and wanted to dine with him, Zeitzler got a headache, but he had no choice but to come. He originally thought the Führer only wanted to understand the specific situation of the Dieppe Raid, and he had made full preparations. Unexpectedly, after landing, Schmundt subtly informed him that he was about to take over as Chief of the General Staff. Although he didn't know how his close friend had recommended him to the higher-ups, such shocking news still made him feel somewhat apprehensive.
"General Zeitzler, the Dieppe Raid was well executed, however..." Hitler paused, "I'd like to hear your views on the current situation on the Eastern Front."
Zeitzler was stunned. Was the Führer really going to listen to my thoughts? But I haven't prepared anything!
He thought for a moment, carefully choosing his words, and slowly said, "Führer, as you know, I only received the telegram and rushed here this afternoon. In fact, until yesterday, I was still the Chief of Staff of Army Group D on the Western Front, busy dealing with the aftermath of the Dieppe Raid. My understanding of the Eastern Front is entirely limited to the war reports from the High Command, and my knowledge is rather superficial..." Zeitzler still couldn't figure out Hitler's intentions and didn't dare to speak casually, fearing he might anger the Führer, who was rumored to have become somewhat neurotic recently. But he also couldn't simply throw up his hands and say he didn't know, that would only further provoke the Führer's displeasure and might even implicate Schmundt.
Hitler interrupted him mercilessly, "Don't be modest, get to the point!"
Zeitzler's expression was a bit awkward, but he was also a seasoned man and quickly adjusted his mindset.
"The overall situation on the Eastern Front is still relatively..." Zeitzler thought for a long time, finally squeezing out a word, "...positive! In the northern sector of the front, opposite Army Group North, we have besieged Leningrad and thwarted the Red Army's offensive at Demyansk; in the Rzhev Salient in the central sector of the front, under the leadership of General Model, we have firmly held our defensive positions and inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy; in the southern sector of the front, our army has cleared out the remaining enemy forces on the Crimean Peninsula, firmly controlling Sevastopol and the Kerch Peninsula. After thwarting Timoshenko's offensive attempts, we achieved victory at Kharkov, and the Sixth Army is already at the city gates, forming a strong deterrent against Stalingrad... Of course, there are also many problems. First, there is a severe shortage of troops. After last year's winter offensive and this year's summer defense, the strength of many divisions has been almost depleted. I have seen many units transferred from the Eastern Front to the Western Front for rest and recuperation with severe personnel shortages, even missing a third to a quarter of their strength. These forces cannot be utilized again until they are replenished. Second, forces are too dispersed. I agree with the strategic directions of advancing towards the Caucasus and Stalingrad, but the current troop strength on the Eastern Front is far from sufficient to support such a strategy."
As Zeitzler spoke, he secretly observed the Führer's expression. To be honest, he personally had great doubts about the Caucasus campaign, but Schmundt had warned him beforehand not to obstruct the Führer's most valued southern flank strategy. After considering it, he decided to comply, but he still had to offer some subtle opinions.
"General Guderian, what are your thoughts?" Hitler listened to Zeitzler's statement without comment, showing no particular inclination in his expression. He simply turned to Guderian with a calm look, which surprised the latter, when did the Führer become so composed?
"Respected Führer." Guderian put down his knife and fork. "Frankly speaking, I have been away from the front lines for the past few months. Although I have gathered some information, it may not reflect the actual situation, so my judgment..."
Hitler knew his concerns and waved his hand with a smile, "This isn't a formal combat discussion meeting, nor are there any minutes to be distributed afterwards. This is purely the Supreme Commander seeking advice, so you don't need to have any reservations. Being direct might be better, this time last year, if my generals hadn't played a double game behind my back, perhaps we would be discussing post-war reconstruction by now."
Guderian's face flushed. He, of course, knew what the Führer meant by "playing a double game": before the Battle of Moscow, the commanders of the Eastern Front army groups aimed for Moscow, while the Führer's goal was Ukraine first, then Moscow. He demanded that Guderian's Panzer Group be dispatched to the Southern Army Group to support operations. As a result, Army Commander-in-Chief Brauchitsch, Chief of the General Staff Halder, and Field Marshal Bock, commander of Army Group Center, all opposed it. Through overt and covert means, the Führer's orders were diluted. The armored units of Army Group Center simultaneously prepared to advance on Moscow and also split off forces to support the Ukrainian direction. The result was that the troops neither directly attacked Moscow as the generals had envisioned, nor did they quickly take Ukraine before turning to attack Moscow as the Führer had envisioned. The best five weeks of weather quietly slipped away in meaningless arguments, leading to the defeat in the Battle of Moscow. Subsequently, Brauchitsch was stripped of his position as Army Commander-in-Chief, Bock was removed as commander of Army Group Center, and he, Guderian, was forced into reserve. Now, it was Halder's turn.
"Looking back calmly now, the Führer's decision at the time was indeed brilliant. It's just a pity that there were deviations in our communication and execution." The armored unit commander who was caught between two ends at the time was Guderian himself, but no complaints could be heard in his current words. Zeitzler couldn't help but give him a thumbs up in his heart; these few months in reserve certainly weren't wasted, as the usually disliked Guderian's speaking skills had clearly improved.
Guderian continued, "Regarding the next strategy on the Eastern Front, my idea might be... a bit pessimistic.. I think this year we should conserve our strength, primarily focusing on offensive defense, wearing down the Russians' effective forces, and waiting another year to launch a full-scale offensive."
Zeitzler was startled, but Hitler nodded slightly, "Tell me your reasons."
"There are two main reasons. The first is the troop strength issue that General Zeitzler just mentioned. Our army strength on the Eastern Front is approximately 3 million, and with allied forces, at most 3.5 million. However, we need to face an enemy of at least 4.5 million. On other fronts like the Western Front, the Balkans, and North Africa, we have another 1 million troops, but they face even more British and Americans. Stalin is estimated to have over 2 million reserves and doesn't have to worry about the Japanese behind him. The second is the equipment issue. Whether it's artillery or armored forces, the Russians have at least one and a half times more than us. Although they are clumsy in their use, this numerical advantage is difficult to ignore. What's more critical is that in the vital armored forces, we not only lack a numerical advantage, but we've also lost our quality advantage, the Russian T-34s and KV1s are very difficult for us to deal with. I hear that the Panther (PzKpfw V) has been largely developed, and the Tiger (PzKpfw VI) has also been successfully manufactured.
If we could have a year to carry out large-scale re-equipment, the Empire's armored forces could regain the upper hand, and the same applies to air power." Guderian finished stating his views in one breath, then anxiously awaited Hitler's judgment.
"There's one thing I'd like to correct. Based on intelligence gathered from the front lines and my own judgment, the Russian front-line troop strength is not your estimated 4.5 million, but between 5.5 and 6 million. The estimate of 2 million reserves is also logical. Additionally, the Russian numerical advantage in armored vehicles and artillery might also be greater than you think, they not only surpass us in manufacturing quantity but also receive supplies from the British and Americans. Just in the first half of this year, Stalin received no less than 1,000 tanks from Churchill and Roosevelt, so," Hitler said unhurriedly, "we have already eliminated 400-500 of Stalin's divisions, but he still has at least 500 divisions. I believe your judgment is correct; we should transition to strategic defense. The offensives in the Caucasus and Stalingrad directions can be selectively halted, and if necessary, several salients in the northern and central sectors of the Eastern Front can also be straightened out to conserve troops."
"What?" This time, it was Zeitzler and Guderian who were surprised. Was this still the Führer who consistently insisted on seeing things through and refused to give up an inch of acquired land? Such an adjustment almost completely reversed the strategic direction decided at the turn of summer and autumn, and its magnitude left them dumbfounded.