One week later, news swept across the shinobi world like a hurricane.
The Third Raikage—the man famous for his direct, overwhelming style—had personally led an elite Kumogakure strike team. Moving with shocking speed and audacity, they cut across more than a dozen countries and launched a sudden raid deep into the heart of the already chaotic Land of Wind, heading straight for Sunagakure.
Faced with this sudden, spear-like assault led by the current era's strongest fighter, the leaderless Sunagakure was thrown into confusion. Their initial response was rushed and disorganized.
But in that moment of crisis, a jonin named Rasa stepped forward.
Not only did he display outstanding command and coordination, quickly pulling together Sunagakure's scattered defenses, but more importantly—he openly used Magnet Release in front of everyone.
The golden sand iron moved like a living tide under his control. The sight greatly boosted the morale of Sunagakure's shinobi.
When people were panicking and there was no clear leader, the sudden appearance of a powerful figure who possessed Magnet Release and showed leadership ability naturally became the core everyone could rally around.
With the full support of the two veteran elders, Chiyo and Ebizo, Rasa was quickly pushed to the front and temporarily given command of the village.
What followed became a mess of conflicting claims.
Kumogakure declared that the Third Raikage had descended like a god of war, rampaged through the Land of Wind as if it were empty land, taught Sunagakure a harsh lesson, and achieved all strategic objectives before withdrawing in victory.
Sunagakure claimed that Rasa had taken command in a time of crisis, led their brave shinobi in a fierce counterattack on their own soil, repelled the arrogant invaders, and defended the village's dignity and territory.
Both sides insisted they had won decisively. The actual details of the fighting, casualty numbers, and whether any large-scale battle had even occurred became completely muddled. Outsiders had no way of knowing the truth.
What was clear, however, was that thanks to the prestige he gained from using Magnet Release and repelling a powerful enemy during the crisis, Rasa was officially elected as Sunagakure's Fourth Kazekage at an astonishing speed, with the full backing of Chiyo and Ebizo.
A village that had been thrown into crisis by the mysterious disappearance of its Third Kazekage had completed its transfer of power in a dramatic and bloody fashion, and once again raised a leader's banner.
Everyone knew, however, that Sunagakure's crisis was far from over. The turmoil in the shinobi world had only just begun.
Shinichi stood by the window, clearly sensing the heavy, storm-like tension hanging in the air.
From his perspective, the Third Raikage personally leading a team across more than a dozen countries was an extremely abstract move. It was like Yuan Shao marching an army from Hebei all the way through Cao Cao, Lü Bu, and Liu Biao's territories just to attack Meng Huo in Yunnan.
Even in the Three Kingdoms era, no one would pull something this ridiculous.
But in this world of superhumans, it made a certain amount of sense. While the Land of Wind was poor, Sunagakure possessed highly valuable strategic assets—poison techniques, puppetry, secret arts, and rare metals.
The Third Raikage had probably calculated that with Sunagakure leaderless and in chaos, he could strike hard and maybe snatch something valuable. Even if he gained nothing material, beating Sunagakure badly would boost Kumogakure's reputation. A village's prestige often directly affected how many missions it received.
Shinichi shook his head and looked up at the sky. Under the distant heavens, Konoha's peace felt as thin and fragile as glass.
"It's starting…" he murmured.
He walked to his desk, picked up a brush, and wrote on a blank sheet of paper:
On the Inevitability of Sunagakure Launching War Against Konoha and the Time Window Analysis
"To the Hokage, with respect."
Inside the Hokage's office, the Third Hokage's gaze fell on the report that had just been delivered, signed by Higashino Shinichi.
Two months ago, this same boy had submitted a report stating that the Third Kazekage had likely met with misfortune—correctly identifying the biggest undercurrent in the shinobi world before anyone else had confirmed it.
Hiruzen slowly opened the document. His eyes landed on the title.
On the Inevitability of Sunagakure Launching War Against Konoha and the Time Window Analysis
Hokage-sama,
Sunagakure's situation has now reached a critical point. Although the truth of the Third Kazekage's disappearance has been covered up, intelligence agencies from every nation have already confirmed it. Kumogakure's recent military adventure has further exposed Sunagakure's internal and external difficulties to the world.
At this moment, Sunagakure launching war against Konoha is no longer a question of possibility. It has become an inevitability—only the timing remains uncertain.
There are four main reasons:
First, the need to consolidate power. Although the Fourth Kazekage Rasa rose to power during the crisis, his foundation is still unstable. While the two elders Chiyo and Ebizo support him, that support is based on the temporary consensus that someone needed to take charge during the emergency, not on absolute personal loyalty. The former Third Kazekage's old subordinates…
Therefore, Rasa urgently needs an external victory to unite the people, establish his authority, and complete the transition from "temporarily elected acting leader" to "legitimate Fourth Kazekage." This is the natural political instinct of any new regime. It has nothing to do with personal character—it is a structural necessity of power.
Second, the need to give an account for his predecessor. The Third Kazekage's mysterious disappearance cannot be explained to the villagers or the shinobi. If the blame can be cleverly shifted onto an external enemy—onto the conspiracy of a hostile force—then the problem is solved.
However, I must clearly state that this so-called external enemy will not be Kumogakure, which just invaded the Land of Wind. It will inevitably be Konoha.
Third, economic pressure. Over the past year, Sunagakure has poured massive resources into war preparations. Military spending has skyrocketed and material reserves have been heavily depleted…
Now Sunagakure has an arrow drawn on the bowstring. They have no choice but to release it. If they stop, their economy will collapse and internal contradictions will explode all at once.
Fourth, geographical necessity. If Sunagakure wanted to fight Kumogakure, they would have to cross almost the entire continent. Supply lines would be extremely long and the logistical burden enormous. The Land of Lightning is mountainous and easy to defend, difficult to attack…
But if they attack Konoha, they only need to cross the Land of Rivers. The Land of Rivers is small and sparsely populated, unable to stop a large army from passing through…
The Land of Fire is fertile and rich in resources—something the barren Land of Wind cannot compare to.
In summary, there is no longer any doubt that Sunagakure will launch war against Konoha.
The only question is when.
My judgment is within one month.
The reasons are as follows:
First, internal consolidation and final war mobilization.
Second, the suitable window created by climate and geography.
Third, the strategic opportunity window for a preemptive surprise attack.
This concludes my analysis of the time window for Sunagakure to attack Konoha.
Hiruzen took a deep breath after reading this far. It took him a long time to slowly exhale before continuing.
"However, I must further point out that once Sunagakure makes its move, this will absolutely not be an isolated war between two villages. It will inevitably trigger a great war that engulfs the entire shinobi world!"
"The Third Great Ninja War!"
"This coming war will be the most dangerous one our Land of Fire and Konoha have ever faced. Because from the very beginning, we will be forced to…"
Hiruzen's eyes suddenly narrowed.
In the previous two Great Ninja Wars, Konoha had also fought on multiple fronts, but there had always been clear primary opponents.
For example, during the First Great Ninja War, Kumogakure was the main enemy while other fronts saw only sporadic conflict.
During the Second, the main opponents were Sunagakure, Amegakure, and Iwagakure, and those three were also fighting among themselves. The pressure on Konoha remained manageable.
But this report stated plainly that in this war, Konoha would immediately face a coordinated pincer attack from both Sunagakure and Kumogakure from the very start—fighting on two fronts right away.
It even suggested the possibility of eventually opening four battlefronts. The danger level would far exceed any previous war.
Hiruzen took another deep breath to calm the turmoil in his chest and kept reading.
Kumogakure!
The Third Raikage is aggressive by nature and believes in striking first.
Iwagakure!
The Third Tsuchikage Ōnoki is an old schemer who excels at reading the situation and adapting to the wind.
Kirigakure!
Kirigakure is surrounded by sea and faces the Land of Fire across the water.
Therefore, my conclusion is:
Sunagakure's full-scale war against Konoha is now an inevitability that will occur within one month. Once the war breaks out, Kumogakure will almost certainly follow immediately with a surprise attack from the northeast. At that point, our Land of Fire and Konoha will be directly thrown into a two-front war—
—and it may even develop into a dangerous four-front situation.
The above analysis is for the Hokage's reference in decision-making.
—Higashino Shinichi
Konoha Year 46, December 2nd.