Chapter 236: The "Rome" Scheme
Mentioning the Italian matter brought a shadow to Franz's face. After the Austro-Prussian War, Italy took Venice, and before that, in French-backed moves, Italy had taken Lombardy along with several Austrian-affiliated states. Indeed, Italy is currently the greatest threat from outside the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Prussia had seized leadership in the German lands—that was just losing a war—but Italy, that feeble state, had the cunning to pick the right side, snatching away actual Habsburg territory. Now Austria was left with only Trieste as a precarious naval outlet, the most humiliating blow of recent years.
Franz silently cursed Italy, Prussia, and the rebel Hungarians. Internal and external troubles came one after another.
"You have a plan?" asked Franz.
Right now, the only protector of the Papal States was France. Yet Napoléon III had once lived in Italy under the Carbonari; it was precisely that naive "national principle" that fueled Italy's unification. In the Crimean War's final days, the Kingdom of Sardinia took advantage of Anglo-French tensions, siding with France, winning Napoleon III's goodwill, and paying France with Savoy and Nice. With French help, Italy defeated Austria and took Austrian-controlled Lombardy, also annexing small duchies once under Austrian influence in Tuscany, Parma, and Modena, thus achieving initial unification.
Looking at it from that angle, all the big players—Prussia, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman, and Russia—seem to be messing around. The geo-political environment was extremely hostile.
Ernst said, "If France ends up losing badly on the European front, they might withdraw troops from Rome to reinforce the homeland."
Franz and Ferdinand stared at each other in disbelief. "So you're implying that Prussia could threaten France so heavily?"
They didn't mean to underestimate Prussia, but they saw France as the acknowledged strongest land power. Even Austria-Hungary admits that. People have long regarded France as formidable, especially from Napoleon's time. With the restored Napoléon III, the French Army remained powerful, having recently humbled Austria in Italy.
Ernst continued, "Let's be frank: you both have faced Prussia—once you lost. But that was Prussia alone; Italy also joined, I know. But Italians aren't that capable. Honestly, against a country like the Abyssinian Empire in East Africa, it's uncertain if Italy would manage to win smoothly."
"Heh…"
Franz and Ferdinand clearly doubted that an African state could match up to modern Europe—except maybe if the foe was East Africa. But do recall they recognized Italy's subpar performance compared to the Austrian Army, so it wasn't nonsense.
"Moreover, last time, Prussia was just Prussia. Now, it's the whole North German Confederation. And you all see how fast the Prussian Army grows. From a mere pushover in the War of the Fourth Coalition, to drawing with Denmark, avenging that loss later, then in recent years besting Austria—transforming the empire into Austro-Hungary, taking the lead in Germany. Four years have passed—by now, their army could have reached a new peak."
"You're going a bit overboard…" someone muttered.
"Maybe so, but I do have some basis. My businesses soared on the wars with Denmark and with Austria. I'll profit again from a Franco-Prussian War," Ernst bragged.
Prussia waging war on France—someone must gather funds. War bonds would likely appear, and with a better-known bank to handle them, maybe Ernst's Hechingen Bank would get a share of the eventual 5 billion war indemnity.
Ernst said, "When Prussia fought you, it mobilized over fifty thousand troops in no time. If it fights France, that number might top a million."
Neither man refuted that. With the entire North German Confederation included, Prussia indeed could raise so many. In the Austro-Prussian War, Prussia's mobilization was already terrifying. That probably wasn't its limit, though, since many states in Austria's orbit had been tangled inside Prussia's territory; the monarchy's rail system never got used to full capacity. And after swallowing those populous, wealthy states in North Germany, Prussia's population is near 30 million. France's is about 38 million, so the gap isn't huge, plus the southern German states might join Prussia—particularly Bavaria—shoring up that difference. Thus, the total small-German realm might exceed 40 million. Even if part of southern Germany had only partial allegiance, it would still tie up some French forces.
"If Prussia's also prepared to deal with you, counting on the possibility that you might back France… well, you'd just be singled out for it," Ernst quipped.
"I'd like to," Franz thought, but truth was that Austria-Hungary couldn't intervene. The foreign minister had said, "We're a 'defensive state' that can't chase any further conquests; we're already 'overweight.' If we pick up even more—whether land or gold—we collapse."
Truly, Austria can't step in. Exactly why Ernst had something in mind for them.
"Actually, Sire, the outcome in Germany no longer matters to Austria-Hungary. The empire's real foe isn't Prussia. You two have a bigger worry…" Ernst paused.
"France? Russia? Don't say you're lobbying for Wilhelm I!" Franz grew suspicious. The Hohenzollern name alone triggered alarm. Perhaps Wilhelm had egged Ernst on to keep Austria from stirring trouble?
"You give me too much credit. Wilhelm I would never use me like that. And you know me too well, Sire. Frankly, you're being too absolute. No matter how you see Prussia, you can't do anything. Austria-Hungary's real enemy is its ally of Prussia—soon-to-be unified Italy."
"Italy?" The men were taken aback.
"Isn't it obvious? They've broken free from Austrian-French overlordship. If they seize the chance, once France is locked in war with Prussia, to unify the Papal States—then Austria's Mediterranean interests must bow to them. Once they unify the papacy, I've caught wind they're eyeing southern Austria's large Italian enclaves as well."
So Ernst laid bare his scheme, hoping to trip up that two-faced Italy. Whether it stops them from annexing the Papal States depends on Austria. East Africa invests no soldiers, only stirs the pot.
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