Chapter 237: Thinking Too Small
Replacing France as the protector of the Papal States—and thereby invoking a religious pretext to criticize Italy—would primarily serve to delay Italian unification. This is highly tempting for the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Even though the Papal States are quite small now, they are not just any area: they are Rome, one of the most prosperous parts of Italy in terms of economy, and they also hold unparalleled cultural, historical, and political status within the peninsula. Economically speaking, the most prosperous territories were once Austria's own lands—Venice and Lombardy.
Ernst has offered only a rough plan. To turn it into reality, experts must flesh out all the details. The fact that Franz took it seriously proves that half the battle is already won.
…
"Ernst!"
Just as he left Schönbrunn Palace, Ferdinand called out to his future son-in-law.
"Father-in-law, what is it?"
"Do you have some grudge against the Italians? To come up with such a nasty idea!"
"Haha, no way. Italy hasn't offended me at all, and in fact, I do plenty of business with Italy. There's no reason I'd hold a grudge."
"You're a businessman. Based on your usual style, you always act for profit. There must be a reason you're so intent on harming the Kingdom of Italy."
"Nonsense! Who told you that? I've always been honest in my dealings. Our fellow businessmen are all happy to collaborate with the companies under me, and everything we do is legal and aboveboard—unlike those unscrupulous capitalists. If someone's spreading rumors, let me know who it is, and I'll certainly give them a taste of their own medicine!"
"It was Franz who said it."
"Well then, never mind. But an emperor shouldn't be confusing right and wrong."
"Tell me the real reason that makes you take aim at the Italian Kingdom."
"Don't overthink it. It's simple: East Africa needs a strong Austro-Hungarian Empire, not a strong Italy," Ernst interrupted Ferdinand.
"Mmm, so that's it. I guess I was overthinking. Right, you mentioned in Schönbrunn Palace that if the Franco-Prussian War breaks out, you can make a tidy profit. What was that about?"
Compared to politics, Ferdinand finds money more appealing. If anyone else had said something like that, he'd never believe them—but Ernst indeed has extraordinary talent in that department.
"If you want a sure bet, buy Prussian government bonds."
"So you're that certain France will lose?"
Ernst's statement basically implies that France is doomed—otherwise how would Prussia repay its debts? After all, it still hasn't repaid what it owed from the last war.
"All France has going for it is that its army is slightly stronger than that of Austro-Hungary. In everything else, compared to Austro-Hungary, it lacks a clear advantage. So, how could it fight Prussia?"
"I might be Austrian and a member of the Habsburg family, but to be honest, our Austro-Hungarian Empire really lags behind France. Just look at the messy Hungarian problem."
"Do you really think France is all united? Right now, France has three different royal families: the Orléans and Bourbon branches are both opposed to Napoleon III, and there's also the biggest 'reactionary' group—the Republicans."
Ernst calls the French Republicans a "reactionary" group, which is actually putting it mildly. For a government that, in time of war, collaborates with the enemy and brutally represses its people on behalf of big capital, it can easily rank among the worst French governments—only behind the one in World War II.
"You're saying that the French will backstab Napoleon III?"
"Those folks are spineless. If it's a winning fight, sure, but as soon as Napoleon III slips up a bit at the front lines, that pack of idiots will definitely ruin things," Ernst said.
Frankly, Napoleon III does have some ability. France flourished under him, and in terms of overall national strength, France is indeed ahead of Prussia. However, in the Franco-Prussian War, the French government at home behaved so disgracefully that calling them vermin would be an understatement.
Napoleon III just isn't ruthless enough; if he'd had even half the decisiveness of Napoleon I, he wouldn't have been betrayed by his own side.
…
At Schönbrunn Palace
"Have the generals in Vienna come see me."
"Yes, Your Majesty."
Before dusk, the top Austro-Hungarian generals assembled at Schönbrunn Palace.
"How likely do you think it is for a Franco-Prussian War to break out?" Franz, seated on the sofa, asked.
"They'll definitely fight, but the timeline is unclear."
"What if we assume war breaks out in two months?"
"Your Majesty, that seems unlikely."
"But let's assume there is some possibility."
"There certainly could be. France has long been coveting German lands, and Prussia is no pushover; its army has remained first-rate."
"So, if this Franco-Prussian War flares up all of a sudden, what should our Austro-Hungarian Empire do?" Franz inquired.
"Well…speaking candidly, our Empire is better off not joining prematurely."
"But if we don't join early, we get nothing. We'd just watch one side claim all the spoils," Franz insisted.
"What else can we do? If we join the war, our odds of success aren't that high, and the risk-to-reward ratio simply isn't worth it."
Seeing his subordinates argue heatedly, Franz remained silent. Austria truly has declined, so even among its generals, attitudes toward Prussia and France are ambiguous—a sign of low confidence.
"All right, enough of this. If we don't pick a side in the Franco-Prussian conflict, how about opening a new front?" Franz asked.
"Huh?" The Austro-Hungarian generals looked baffled.
"Think carefully: if a war really does break out between France and Prussia, is there another country that might get restless?"
"Your Majesty, do you mean England?"
Franz shook his head. "I already said we won't discuss Franco-Prussian affairs. This time we won't interfere in the Franco-Prussian conflict. But if the war does happen, Italy won't just sit idly by."
"Italy? Your Majesty is referring to the Papal States?" a sharp-eyed general immediately caught on.
"Exactly. Should a Franco-Prussian War occur..." Franz proceeded to recount Ernst's analysis and plan in its entirety.
"What do you think of it?"
"Interfering in the Papal States to thwart Italy's unification of the peninsula! If that alone is our objective, it doesn't sound too difficult."
"And what do we gain?"
"Stalling Italy's unification is already a huge benefit for us. I believe Italy is a far bigger threat to the Empire than Russia or Prussia. Once unified, it will cause us trouble—besides its navy, it might even covet the Balkans," said Admiral Wilhelm von Tegesov.
One could also count the Ottoman Empire, but that state has only nominal power.
"Hmm. If the plan is to target Italy, I feel it's still too small in scope. Could we also use this opportunity to regain Venice?" Another army general piped up.
His words immediately lit up the Austrian generals' imaginations.
"Indeed, a golden opportunity! If Franco-Prussian War breaks out, Italy loses its patron, and both France and Prussia would be eager to win us over…"
"Brilliant! We all know Italy's combat performance. If not for France and Prussia supporting it in previous conflicts, it would never have harmed us."
"Your Majesty, if we're going to fight, we should act now. This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance."
Moments earlier, these same generals had been wavering about facing Prussia and France. Now they all seemed convinced Austria-Hungary would surely triumph and that Italy was easy prey.
Seeing their morale shift, Franz was pleased. Among the four Great Powers, Austria-Hungary is the weakest, but it still has enough strength to handle Italy. So for now, rushing weapons and men to the Papal States is key.
Once the French troops withdraw, the Papal States align with Austria-Hungary, they'll have a pretext for war. As the generals said, maybe Venice can be reclaimed too.
As for the risk, even if the offensive doesn't go smoothly, Italy can't possibly invade Austrian territory. But if the plan succeeds, Venice is theirs…
With that, all the top generals were ordered to produce a thorough plan.
"Move in secrecy. When the right moment comes, we'll hit the Kingdom of Italy with lightning speed."
"Yes, Your Majesty!" Now everyone is on board with war.
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